The Football Scientist's QB draft guide (Updated): An in-depth breakdown of the Top 25 signal callers for 2023 (2024)

The quarterback position has always been important in fantasy football, but that prominence has increased notably of late, as 12 quarterbacks scored 270+ points last season — scoring 4 points per TD pass, 1 point per 25 pass yards and -2 points per interception. To put that into perspective, in full PPR scoring last season, only 13 other players scored 270+ points (six wide receivers, one tight end, and six running backs).

This makes it imperative to get strong quarterback production and to help with this effort, The Athletic is providing its readers with access to my annual deep dive write-ups for the quarterback position. I have been penning these types of reviews for my fantasy football draft guide series for 20 years now (the 2023 edition can be foundhere), but this list of the Top 25 quarterbacks marks the first time these write-ups have been made available at scale outside of that periodical.

We have also included a downloadable Excel rankings chart to assist with your draft day quarterback selections. This chart features my overall/upside/downside system that utilizes a grading spectrum to highlight a player’s value range. The upside grade reflects a player’s value if things go well for him during the 2023 campaign, while the downside grade illustrates the floor if circ*mstances fare poorly. The overall grade then details the quarterback’s most likely performance level this year.

These grades are on a 1-100 scale and are also color coded, with blue (90-100) indicating an elite fantasy player, green (80-89) representing a strong fantasy starter, yellow (70-79) signifying a solid fantasy backup, orange (60-69) suggesting that the player be a low-end backup in deep leagues, and a red (below 60) grade being given to quarterbacks who should not be on most fantasy rosters.

(The write-ups also include references to the color-coded system in regard to matchups, as they often highlight if a player has a high volume of green-rated (favorable) or red-rated (unfavorable) opponents.)

The chart then provides matchup points (MATCH PTS) and fireworks points (FIRE PTS) totals for each player. The matchup points metric is a measurement of how favorable or unfavorable the opposing pass coverage is over the course of the 2023 season. The fireworks points statistic indicates how likely it is that this quarterback’s team is going to get into a lot of high scoring games this year. Both are graded on a 1 to 100 scale, with 100 being most beneficial to the quarterback.

The chart concludes with a suggested draft round and auction dollar value (A$) for each player ($200 budget format). The draft round is based on leagues that have only one starting quarterback and will need to be adjusted for fantasy managers in 2QB/SuperFlex leagues.

• Download KC’s full QB Excel chart, including his Upside and Downside ratings
• Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Week 1: Streamers, Deon Jackson, Marvin Mims and more

Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let’s dive into the top 25 quarterback reviews!

• Overall rank: 1
• Upside rank: 1
• Downside rank: 1

Upside case: With his 417.4 points last season, Mahomes is now the only quarterback in league history to score 400+ points in two seasons (417.1 in 2018). A big factor in this is that Andy Reid leans on Mahomes close to the goal line, as Mahomes led the league by wide margins in attempts, completions, and touchdown passes in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line last season. Mahomes also excels in every other area, as he was first in short PPG, seventh in vertical PPG, and eighth in rush PPG last year. Reid may be the best offensive play caller in the NFL. The fireworks points total suggests Kansas City will get in a ton of high scoring games.

Downside case: Prior to Josh Allen finishing first in QB points in 2020 and 2021, no quarterback had achieved back-to-back No. 1 ranks in QB scoring since Daunte Culpepper in 2003-04. The KC wide receiver corps is very untested, which means an injury to Travis Kelce could leave Mahomes too dependent on newcomers. The Chiefs have a favorable rush defense schedule, so Reid may decide to focus on rushing the ball more this season.

Overall case: There is a wide path for Mahomes to post a third 400+ point season, so Mahomes edges out Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts for the top spot at this position.

Draft strategy:Mahomes will require a second-round selection in most drafts.

• Overall rank: 2
  
• Upside rank: 1
• Downside rank: 2

Upside case: Last year, Allen was only 20 points away from being the first quarterback to post three straight seasons at the top of the fantasy rankings since Brett Favre in 1995-97. Allen was the only quarterback to rank in the top three in rush and pass PPG and placed second and third, respectively, in vertical and stretch vertical PPG. Allen is a prolific red zone passer, ranking tied for second in touchdown passes there last year and led the club in rushing touchdowns in that area as well. To do all of this while dealing with an elbow injury shows how reliable Allen is, and he’s only missed one game in the past four seasons. There are four green-rated fireworks matchups in Weeks 12-16.

Downside case: Will Allen’s rush production begin declining this year? It’s a valid question since Allen and HC Sean McDermott have both stated publicly that he needs to rush less frequently. It may also be why Buffalo bulked up at the running back position. Too much of the passing game funnels through Stefon Diggs, so this offense is one Diggs injury away from dropping a level. There is only one green-rated fireworks matchup in the first eight weeks and the matchup points total is unhelpful.

Overall case:There is no doubt Allen will be one of the leading scorers at this position in 2023, but the potential for even a marginal rushing decrease is enough to place him second on the quarterback board.

Draft strategy:Since there is a trio of elite fantasy quarterbacks this year, Allen will likely still be available late in the second round in most draft rooms.

• Overall rank: 3
  
• Upside rank: 1
• Downside rank: 3

Upside case: Hurts led all quarterbacks in rush PPG in 2021 and yet improved his pace from a 9.1 total in that campaign to a 10.3-point average in 2022. Impressive as that is, Hurts made an even more remarkable leap in downfield passing production, as the addition of A.J. Brown helped move Hurts from ranking 15th in vertical PPG in 2021 to being fifth in that metric, and second in stretch vertical PPG, in 2022. The advances didn’t stop there, as Hurts also posted an NFL career low in interceptions and interception percentage. With nearly every offensive starter returning, Hurts should be able to closely mimic his production in all of these areas. The schedule has five green-rated fireworks matchups in Weeks 9-14.

Downside case: OC Shane Steichen is now the head coach of the Colts and is being replaced by Brian Johnson, who is in his first year as an NFL-level OC. Hurts landed over $175 million in guaranteed money with his five-year contract extension and might lose a bit of his motivation now that the cash has arrived. The Eagles may want to shift Hurts back just a bit from his 165-rush pace of last year, both to save some wear and because the schedule doesn’t have a green-rated rush defense until Week 15. The pass coverage schedule is also a potential problem, as is a pass rush schedule that has only two green-rated foes.

Overall case: The fantasy football world now has three true elite quarterbacks to choose from, as Hurts has joined Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen on that list.

Draft strategy:Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts are all very likely to move off draft boards by the end of Round 2.

• Overall rank: 4
  
• Upside rank: 4
• Downside rank: 4
  

Upside case: Fields got out to a slow start last year but then saw his fantasy value skyrocket, as he posted nine straight games with 17+ points at one point and racked up seven consecutive contests with 21+ points. He was essentially a running back at quarterback, as Fields was seventh in the league in rushing yards and placed first in QB rush PPG. The Bears made ample investments in the passing game this year, so Fields should see an increase over his No. 31 ranking in QB pass PPG. The matchups and fireworks points totals both offer assistance in upgrading Fields’ aerial production.

Downside case: The passing production issue has been going on for two years, as Fields also finished last in pass PPG in 2021. The more worrisome issue is that Fields was at the bottom of the league in short PPG in both of those seasons. This should be the easiest area to upgrade and yet last year he was more than 0.5 PPG behind next to last place and thus isn’t making any progress. Fields was sacked a league-leading 55 times in 2022. The cumulative rush/sack damage is why part of why Fields has been listed with ribs, ankle, shoulder, and hip injuries over the past two years.

Overall case:Rushing quarterbacks can move up the quarterback ranking charts quite quickly, but they do hit resistance near the top of those ranks because ground ability can only take fantasy quarterbacks to a certain level. In the case of Fields, that level is just below the elite four. UPDATE: The Burrow injury has moved Fields up to the No. 4 ranking on the QB chart.

Draft strategy:The late third or early fourth round should offer a solid draft-day return for Fields.

• Overall rank: 5
  
• Upside rank: 6
  
• Downside rank: 5
  

Upside case: Burrow continued his journey to the top of the fantasy quarterback ranks last year, as he was one of only four quarterbacks to average 20+ PPG. Burrow’s value is pass-centric, as he placed second in pass PPG, yet he also ranked ninth in rush PPG in part due to rushing for five touchdowns. He was the only passer to rank in the top four in short and vertical PPG and also placed sixth in stretch vertical PPG. The Bengals added Pro Bowl LT Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency to improve an already strong pass blocking wall that placed fifth in pass pressure rate allowed in 2022. Cincinnati may have the best wide receiver trio in the league.

Downside case:The Bengals were 12th in percentage of pass plays in the red zone and were only four-tenths of a percentage point away from ranking 14th. This shows that Bengals fans and fantasy managers are correct about Zac Taylor leaning on the run a bit too much in key situations. Only two quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions over the past two years. UPDATE: He is now battling a calf injury that could impact the start of his 2023 campaign.

Overall case:UPDATE: The calf injury has moved Burrow to a No. 5 QB ranking.

Draft strategy:UPDATE: Burrow may still offer the highest ROI for anyone at this position, as this offense allows him to contend for the top scoring spot, but in general he should be taken as a late third- or early-fourth round pick.

• Overall rank: 6
• Upside rank: 6
  
• Downside rank: 6

Upside case: The Chargers passing game could shift into overdrive with the OC change from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore. To get an idea of just how impactful this could be, Herbert ranked second in QB points in 2021 while placing 10th in vertical PPG and 11th in stretch vertical PPG. Moore’s approach is much more aggressive on downfield throws than Lombardi’s and thus could lead to Top 5 point totals at those route depths. Mike Williams and Quentin Johnson give Herbert a pair of superb deep ball threats. Herbert scored eight rushing touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons, so last year’s zero rushing scores could be an anomaly. The Chargers have the talent to field a Top 10 pass blocking group.

Downside case: The change to Moore isn’t going to increase the aerial volume of this offense, as Herbert threw 670+ passes in each of the past two years. That means it will be a trade-off from short to long throws, which is a more incremental fantasy point increase than would be seen with a larger pass volume. The offensive line has a shaky durability track record. One could say the same for Williams (and possibly Keenan Allen), and Johnson is far from a workhorse wideout.

Overall case: Dak Prescott played two full seasons in a Moore offense and ranked second and seventh, respectively, in QB points in those years. Herbert should land somewhere in that range as a mid-tier QB1.

Draft strategy: Herbert’s fantasy value is well established and that will move him off draft boards in the fourth round.

• Overall rank: 7
• Upside rank: 5
  
• Downside rank: 7

Upside case: Jackson didn’t have quite enough planned rushing attempts to be listed as a qualifier (he had 75, but needed 100), but if he had his 11.1 GBYPA total would have led the league. The read-style plays that he frequently uses are very high percentage rush types and led to Jackson getting an incredible 60.0 GBR on his planned rushes. Add in scrambling and red zone/goal line rushes (he was tied for the team lead in both of the latter categories last year) and it’s a great scoring production base. He placed 15th in vertical PPG last year and could go even higher there with the wide receiver upgrades Baltimore made this offseason, as new OC Todd Monken’s offense will rely on the pass more than Greg Roman’s scheme did.

Downside case: Jackson is a mediocre passer, ranking 19th in YPA since 2018 (minimum 1,000 attempts). The entire wide receiver corps is unproven outside of Odell Beckham Jr., and OBJ just posted the lowest single-season YPT total of his career. The more pass-centric approach is at least partially due to Jackson’s durability woes, as Jackson has missed five games in each of the past two years, but this offense is just not built to throw the ball. Jackson’s issues of being rattled by a pass rush showed up well before the infamous 2021 Miami game, and getting hit in the pocket can cause injuries just as easily as getting hit while running the ball.

Overall case: The projection here is that Baltimore will be wise and not scale Jackson’s rushing volume back too much, but any trade-off from rushes to passes in his case is a net negative in fantasy value. It’s why Jackson falls out of the Top 4 fantasy quarterbacks, but he still easily maintains mid-tier QB1 value.

Draft strategy: Many fantasy managers will still see Jackson as a Top 4 quarterback and push his draft stock up accordingly. That could cause a third-round valuation for Jackson, but savvy managers will acknowledge the downgrade and wait until Round 4 to pick him.

• Overall rank: 8
• Upside rank: 9
• Downside rank: 8

Upside case: Cousins just doesn’t get the credit he deserves, as over the past three seasons only five quarterbacks have scored more fantasy points. Some of this can be attributed to Cousins’ durability, as he’s missed only game due to a physical ailment in his eight seasons as an NFL starter, but he’s also 12th in PPG in that span and ranked third among quarterbacks in plays of 10+ yards last year. The Vikings already had the best play-making wide receiver in the world in Justin Jefferson and now have another playmaker in first-round pick Jordan Addison. The matchup and fireworks points could portend for another large set of high scoring games in an offense that excelled in those last year.

Downside case: HC Kevin O’Connell’s offseason moves strongly indicate that he doesn’t want Minnesota to get into a ton of shootouts in 2023. This offense lost an impact player in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings ranked 23rd in pass pressure rate allowed and didn’t do much to upgrade the offensive line. His margin for error as a QB1 is minimal, as Cousins was only 21 points away from falling from eighth to 13th in QB points last year. He ranked 21st in rush PPG last year and his 21.7 points there was the highest total Cousins has tallied since 2017.

Overall case: Add his reliability to being in an O’Connell offense and it equals mid- to low-end QB1 value for Cousins.

Draft strategy: Cousins is a safe, boring QB1 candidate but one who may be acquired as late as Round 10 in many drafts.

• Overall rank: 9
• Upside rank: 10
• Downside rank: 10

Upside case: The coaching change to Doug Pederson was all Lawrence needed to turn things around after his disappointing rookie season. It helped Lawrence post Top 12 marks in overall, pass, rush, short, and vertical PPG. The across-the-board scoring trend moved Lawrence to a No. 7 fantasy QB ranking and that was without Calvin Ridley, who is back after a year-long suspension. Jacksonville has accumulated what is perhaps a Top 5 set of skill position players and could end up as a Top 5 scoring offense. Lawrence scored five rushing touchdowns on six carries inside the 5-yard line, which shows Pederson trusts him near the goal line. Lawrence has only missed two games in five collegiate/pro seasons.

Downside case:Pederson’s offenses have finished in the Top 10 in scoring in only two of his six years as an NFL head coach. This is evidence that Pederson prefers a balanced offense, which he can certainly have with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby in the backfield. The offensive tackle position is in flux, with left tackle Cam Robinson suspended for the first four games of the season and the starter opposite him being up in the air headed into training camp. Tank Bigsby’s addition could reduce the goal-line carry volume for Lawrence. The low fireworks points total won’t help the Jaguars’ scoring trends, as they have eight red-rated fireworks matchups.

Overall case: Lawrence’s case is an instance where a player can improve on the field and yet see a lateral move or decline in fantasy positional rankings, as his low-end QB1 projection is a step down from his mid-tier QB1 rating in 2022.

Draft strategy: He will probably be selected a round or so earlier than he should, as Lawrence will be drafted in Round 6 or 7 yet should be picked in Rounds 7-8.

• Overall rank: 10
  
• Upside rank: 8
• Downside rank: 11

Upside case: A main element for Watson to be a strong fantasy QB1 is that he averaged 20+ PPG in his final three seasons in Houston. The Browns added a lot of receiving talent to this offense with Elijah Moore, Marquise Goodwin, and Cedric Tillman, and now can make a claim to have a Top 10 set of skill position players. Watson should now be fully acclimated to the Kevin Stefanski system and thus ought to play much better than he did late last year. Watson won’t need much improvement over his 2022 rushing numbers, as he placed 10th in rush PPG. He only missed one game in his three full years as a starter in Houston, so durability is a plus.

Downside case: Watson’s passing skills weren’t simply subpar last year, they were atrocious. He ranked 33rd in pass PPG, 20th in short PPG, 44th in vertical PPG, and 53rd in stretch vertical PPG and did so with many of the pass catchers who are on the 2023 Browns roster. Relying on Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore, wideouts who wore welcomes out with their former teams in part due to inconsistent production levels, to turn things around could be a low percentage move. Cleveland brings back all five offensive line starters, but that group ranked tied for 20th in pass pressure rate allowed last year.

Overall case: Watson placed fourth or fifth in QB fantasy points in those final three seasons at Houston. It’s possible he will return to that scoring level in a full campaign in Cleveland, but last season’s collapse suggests that a hedge is in order, so rate Watson at the bottom of the Top 10 fantasy quarterbacks.

Draft strategy: It should be possible to wait until the seventh round to select Watson.

• Overall rank: 10
  
• Upside rank: 11
• Downside rank: 9

Upside case: Prescott has always been highly productive, but with HC Mike McCarthy taking over play calling, Prescott has a chance to move his scoring into prime Aaron Rodgers territory. Prescott was a Top 10 PPG scorer in the overall, short, and stretch vertical categories last year. Prescott also doubled his 2021 rush PPG pace, which suggests a return to upper-tier form in this area is possible. Adding Brandin Cooks to the receiving corps should help Prescott get back to Top 10 PPG status in vertical PPG and a trio of quality tight ends ought to assist on short and goal-line throws.

Downside case: Is Prescott injury prone? That may not have been a valid question when he missed most of the 2020 season, but after being out for five games with a thumb injury in 2022, it’s something fantasy managers need to consider. Rodgers did finish first or second in QB points seven times under McCarthy, but four of those point totals would not have ranked in the Top 5 in 2022 and a fifth would have ranked fourth. It shows the quarterback scoring landscape has changed and the McCarthy offense may no longer be able to support a Top 4 QB1. McCarthy has also been clear that this offense will run the ball more than it did last year. Relying on Cooks is a shaky proposition given his inconsistent history.

Overall case: McCarthy’s offense looks capable of supporting a low-tier QB1 under these circ*mstances, so rate Prescott at that level.

Draft strategy: Prescott is worthy of an eighth-round pick, but the vast array of quality fantasy quarterbacks this year means a ninth-round pick is probably more appropriate.

• Overall rank: 12
• Upside rank: 12
• Downside rank: 12

Upside case: Smith proved to be a plug-and-play quarterback, as he mimicked Russell Wilson’s production in this offense in many ways. Key here was Smith posting excellent numbers on vertical and stretch vertical aerials, as he ranked third and fifth, respectively, in PPG at those depth levels. Smith isn’t a true rushing quarterback, but he was 13th in rush PPG and thus brings something to the table here. The additions of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zach Charbonnet, and Evan Brown may make this offense even better than it was in 2022. The fireworks points total should result in multiple high scoring games for Seattle this year.

Downside case: Prior to last season, Smith had never finished higher than 20th in the fantasy quarterback ranks. This is still a run-centric offense and could be even more so with Charbonnet in the backfield, so Smith’s pass volume could level off or even decrease. His 9.1 yards per scramble pace is due for a regression, as Seattle ranked tied for third in the league in that category. Combine Smith’s penchant for rushing with the Seahawks’ subpar pass blocking and the propensity for injury could be high.

Overall case: He was fifth in quarterback scoring last year and it wouldn’t take much of an increase in his current projection to move Smith higher in the QB1 tier, but the percentage play is to see last season as a spike that isn’t likely to be repeated. Value him as a low-end QB1 with upside if he has more scoring consistency than expected.

Draft strategy: Smith could be a tremendous value pick in some draft rooms, as he may last well into the double-digit rounds, but in general he should be selected in Rounds 10.

• Overall rank: 13
• Upside rank: 14
• Downside rank: 13

Upside case: Last year was the first time since he became a starter in 2008 that Rodgers wasn’t a QB1 in a non-injury impacted season. The good news is the path back to QB1 status may not be that long, as one of the largest impediments was Rodgers finishing 22nd in short pass PPG. He was fifth in that category in 2021 and has a highly talented receiving corps this year, so a short-area scoring uptick is likely. Rodgers ranked eighth in vertical and stretch vertical PPG last season and has quality long pass targets this year, so a repeat showing there should be a go. He’s one of the most durable quarterbacks in NFL history and has missed one game in the past five seasons. The fireworks points total augurs many high scoring opportunities.

Downside case: A ton of the responsibility for the appallingly bad downfield metrics the Jets had last year falls on Zach Wilson, but when a quarterback finishes 30th in vertical PPR and 28th in stretch vertical PPG, some of the blame goes to the pass catchers. Rodgers will need improvement out of them and a lot better pass blocking as well, as the Jets were tied for 24th in pass pressure rate allowed and only made one major offensive line upgrade this offseason. Rodgers offers very little rush production, as he ranked 29th in rush PPG last year and failed to post 100+ rushing yards in a season for the first time since 2007. New York’s game plans are apt to be run-centric. There are four red-rated pass rushing matchups in the first six weeks.

Overall case: There is no doubt that Rodgers is a huge positional improvement for the Jets, but this is not the optimal place to get Rodgers back into the QB1 tier, so rate him just outside of that level.

Draft strategy: He should be selected in Round 10, but nostalgia may cause Rodgers to be overdrafted in many leagues.

• Overall rank: 14
• Upside rank: 15
• Downside rank: 14

Upside case: Wilson didn’t lose his production penchant at the stretch vertical level last year, as he was sixth in PPG at that depth level and had the third highest percentage of 20+ yard completions among qualifying quarterbacks. The ground production of his early years is long gone yet Wilson still ranked 11th in rush PPG. New HC Sean Payton will put both of these talents to use and has made a concerted effort to upgrade the receiving corps. The offensive line has also been addressed with multiple personnel additions and can greatly improve on its rating next to last in pass pressure rate allowed. Weeks 6-17 include eight green-rated fireworks matchups.

Downside case: He’s been one of the worst short pass quarterbacks over the past two seasons, ranking 24th and 28th, respectively, in PPG in that category. Payton may help the per play productivity, but he’s also made it clear this will be a run-centric team, so Wilson may not post higher than middling numbers here. The positional battles at wide receiver and tight end could take some time to work out, as could the offensive line changes. He’s missed five games over the past two seasons and is in his age-34 campaign.

Overall case: Wilson has seen his fantasy production drop in consecutive seasons, as he placed 15th and 16th, respectively, in QB scoring in those years. The addition of Payton should help in some areas, but the net fantasy impact for Wilson looks to be lateral, so expect another upper-tier QB2 showing.

Draft strategy: Not much is expected from Wilson this year, so he should still be available in Rounds 10 or 11 in most drafts.

• Overall rank: 15
• Upside rank: 13
• Downside rank: 16

Upside case: Jones was a prime example last year of how solid year-over-year improvements can move a quarterback to QB1 status. Jones jumped from eighth to fifth in rush PPG and 29th to 15th in short PPG on his way to vaulting from 27th to ninth in overall points. That Jones did this despite seeing a decline in vertical and stretch vertical PPG shows that there is still untapped upside here, especially since the Giants stocked the receiving depth chart with third-round speedster Jalin Hyatt and a quality pass catching tight end in Darren Waller. New York’s pass blocking was also upgraded with second-round center John Michael Schmitz Jr.

Downside case: The decline in vertical and stretch vertical PPG was significant, as Jones finished 30th and 27th, respectively, in PPG at those depth levels last season. Expecting a rookie wideout to turn numbers of this caliber around is a low percentage play and the rest of the receiving corps ranges from unproven to subpar. The Bills are aiming to reduce Josh Allen’s rush workload after he had 124 carries last year, so the Giants may want to do the same with Jones after he posted 120 rush attempts in 2022. The matchup points total is the worst in the league, so aerial improvements will be a challenge.

Overall case: He was a hit-miss QB1 last year, posting six games with fewer than 14 points and six games with 19+ points. That scoring trend is likely to recur but with so many consistent possibilities to choose from for a starter’s role, Jones is better situated as a high-end fantasy QB2.

Draft strategy: Those looking for some firepower out of a backup quarterback can draft Jones in the eighth round, but those looking for the best percentage play here should wait until Round 9.

• Overall rank: 16
• Upside rank: 16
• Downside rank: 15

Upside case: One of the most amazing statistics from last season is that Goff ranked fifth in pass PPG. He did this due to some incredible short pass numbers, placing second in short PPG and posting a 23-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio at that depth level. Many of those short aerials took place inside the 10-yard line, as Goff was second in touchdown passes in that area of the field. Detroit could be even more dynamic on short passes with Jahmyr Gibbs on the roster, as Gibbs led the Alabama Crimson Tide in receptions last year and can be used all over the gridiron. Goff is very durable, having missed only five games in the past six seasons. The schedule and fireworks points totals are auspicious.

Downside case: Tom Brady was the only quarterback to post a lower rush PPG total among qualifying quarterbacks last season. That is now a trend for Goff, as he was 29th in that metric in 2021. Goff had middling vertical and stretch vertical PPG marks last season (ranked 17th and 14th, respectively). This might be in part a result of the Lions putting a safety lock on the passing game to avoid Goff’s interceptions, so he may not be able to go much higher than this. Repeating a 23-1 touchdown-to-interception pace on short passes will be difficult to achieve.

Overall case: Goff was a QB1 last season and there is a reasonable percentage chance that he posts another low-end QB1-caliber point total this year, but the better percentage play is to select Goff as a mid-tier QB2 due to the lack of vertical success and rushing production.

Draft strategy: The middle of the QB2 draft process should begin sometime around Round 11.

• Overall rank: 17
• Upside rank: 18
• Downside rank: 17

Upside case: Carr was an elite downfield passer last year, placing sixth in vertical PPG and fourth in stretch vertical PPG. Chris Olave (11th in vertical PPR PPG last year) and Rashid Shaheed (13th in stretch vertical PPR PPG) provide Carr with targets who can help him repeat that performance. If Michael Thomas returns to form, it will be three impact wideouts for Carr to go along with Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson. Carr is very durable, having missed only four games in nine NFL seasons. HC Dennis Allen has utilized pass-centric offenses in the past. The matchup points total is as good as one could ask for.

Downside case: Even with those impact long pass numbers, Carr still failed to reach QB1 status as landed 14th in QB scoring last year. That’s standard for Carr, as he posted QB1-caliber points only once (ranked 10th in 2016) in his Raiders tenure, and he had a lot of talent around him in those years. Carr may not be able to rely on those talented pass catchers, as Kamara will likely be suspended for at least part of this season, Thomas has been on the comeback trail for years and Shaheed is a one-trick pony. The matchup points total portends many low scoring games for the Saints.

Overall case: Carr has been a mid- to low-end QB2 for just about his entire career and there isn’t enough in his new address to warrant a fantasy value increase above that level.

Draft strategy: It’s best to wait until Rounds 11-12 before considering drafting Carr.

• Overall rank: 18
• Upside rank: 20
• Downside rank: 18

Upside case: Mike McDaniel’s 49ers offense led the league in net yards per attempt in 2021 (per PFR) and he incorporated that aerial success into the Miami offense last year, as Tagovailoa led the league in vertical and stretch vertical PPG. The Dolphins had two wide receivers place in the Top 6 in vertical PPR PPG, something no other team came close to last year, so Tagovailoa has dual downfield receiving threats. Tagovailoa ranked 12th in short PPG in 2021, indicating he can improve upon his No. 20 rank there in 2022. There are four green-rated fireworks matchups in Weeks 1-9, plus two to close out the season in Weeks 16 and 17.

Downside case: His concussion issues last year were so worrisome that Tagovailoa considered retiring. That is far from the only major ailment Tagovailoa has dealt with in his college and pro careers, as he’s had multiple ankle surgeries, a cringe-worthy dislocated hip that brought comparisons to what happens in automobile accidents, fractured ribs, and multiple fractured fingers. Even if he is fortunate enough to play a full season, this issue has to be a factor in Tagovailoa ranking 30th in rush PPG last year, as Miami’s coaches absolutely do not want him to run the ball. The matchup points total implies a low ceiling.

Overall case: The TFS Draft Guide series always advises caution when considering rostering injury prone players. Tagovailoa is a prime example of this and since the quarterback position is stacked high with strong starter and backup prospects, Tagovailoa is a mid-tier QB2.

Draft strategy: These grade levels suggest Tagovailoa should be a 10th or 11th round draft pick, but he will be selected much earlier than that and thus won’t be available for those following this guideline.

• Overall rank: 19
• Upside rank: 17
• Downside rank: 22

Upside case: The Colts drafted Richardson due to his hybrid pass/rush skills. The best display of these talents occurred when Richardson totaled 515 offensive yards against Tennessee last season, which is the third-highest single game total ever posted in that category by a Gator. HC Shane Steichen knows how to get the most out of a rushing quarterback, having helped craft game plans for Jalen Hurts. The matchup points total is propitious.

Downside case: Richardson was eighth in the SEC in YPA versus Power 5 teams last year and had multiple games with dismal passing numbers, so his aerial skills need some work. Richardson could have a significant learning curve, as he had only one season as the Gators starting quarterback. The Colts have a low rushing defense matchup points total, meaning Richardson will face some challenging matchups on the ground.

Overall case: Rushing quarterbacks are understandably popular in fantasy football, as that skill can quickly vault them to starter-caliber points. That makes a mid-tier QB2 valuation appropriate.

Draft strategy: Richardson’s rushing upside will be a clarion call to draft him in Rounds 9-10.

• Overall rank: 20
• Upside rank: 21
• Downside rank: 19
  

Upside case: He can be one of the top long pass quarterbacks when given the correct scenario, as Garoppolo led the league in yards per completion with the 49ers in 2021. He also has a successful track record on short passes, rating fifth in PPG in that metric in 2022. Josh McDaniels’ offenses have finished 12th or higher in pass attempts in each of his three seasons as a head coach, so pass volume should be plentiful. Few quarterbacks have a running back/wide receiver tandem the caliber of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. The fireworks points total prognosticates multiple high scoring games for the Silver and Black.

Downside case: Garoppolo seems to be an injury waiting to happen, as he has started a full season only once in his career. That issue occurred again last year, and it wasn’t until shortly before training camp started that Garoppolo was cleared to practice. He was one of the worst downfield passers in 2022, finishing 28th in vertical PPG and 31st in stretch vertical PPG, so getting premier points at those depth levels isn’t an automatic. Garoppolo was 22nd in rush PPG last year and the foot injury that ended the 2022 campaign for him won’t help in that area.

Overall case: This is a somewhat fantasy-friendly offense, as Derek Carr finished 17th in quarterback points in 2022. Garoppolo may not be up to that production level for a variety of reasons, but he’s done enough to rate as a low-end QB2.

Draft strategy: Don’t spend any more than a 14th round pick on Garoppolo.

• Overall rank: 21
• Upside rank: 19
• Downside rank: 24

Upside case: He has the makings of a two-way quarterback, having rushed for 2,180 yards and 28 touchdowns at Cincinnati. That skill set will be highly utilized in Arthur Smith’s positionless offense. Ridder also doesn’t hesitate to leave the pocket to run, as 10 of his 16 rush attempts last year were scrambles. Drake London and Kyle Pitts give Ridder a 1-2 receiving talent level few quarterbacks have and Bijan Robinson and Cordarrelle Patterson are also superb pass catchers. The high matchup points total adds to the upside potential here.

Downside case: Atlanta had the most run-heavy offense in NFL last year and the addition of Robinson will only add to that rush-centric lean. The Falcons ranked 31st in red zone pass percentage last year and may not alter that given Ridder’s youth and the presence of Robinson. The drop-off in receiving talent behind London and Pitts is significant, so Ridder is one injury away from having a very limited pass catching corps. With Taylor Heinicke on the roster, Atlanta could be quick to bench Ridder if the Falcons offense struggles. The fireworks points total is unappealing.

Overall case: Rushing talent adds fantasy points quickly, so Ridder makes for a good borderline QB2/QB3 with upside if he can stay in the lineup.

Draft strategy: Ridder will go unselected in most 1QB leagues.

• Overall rank: 22
• Upside rank: 22
• Downside rank: 20

Upside case: Stafford racked up 601 pass attempts in this offense in 2021 and was on pace to top the 600+ attempts mark through Week 8 in 2022, so volume shouldn’t be an issue. He’ll send 175+ of those throws to Cooper Kupp, which is a huge plus. Sean McVay seemed checked out at times last year and is now reportedly recommitted to coaching. It’s almost inconceivable that the Rams offensive line could go through as many injuries as it did last year, so pass blocking should be an improved area. The fireworks points total is a plus.

Downside case: Injuries are now becoming a more common issue for Stafford. A combination of a concussion and a spinal cord injury ended his 2022 campaign early and that latter woe is especially concerning since it’s the third time in the past four years he has dealt with a back issue. Stafford was 26th in vertical PPG last season, so he had regressed even when healthy. That makes one wonder if the elbow issues he was dealing with last offseason are limiting his performance. The matchup points total does not help Stafford’s prospects.

Overall case: Stafford was second in passing PPG in 2021, so there is upside here if he can return to close to that form but do note that season is the only time since 2017 that Stafford has been a QB1. That means he is best valued as a low-end QB2 with a potentially higher ceiling if things pan out.

Draft strategy: The upside will get Stafford drafted in the 12th round or earlier in some draft rooms, but the injury concerns suggest that a Round 13 (or later) selection is more appropriate.

• Overall rank: 23
• Upside rank: 23
• Downside rank: 21

Upside case: Pro-rate Purdy’s 92.06 points per game in his five starts last year over a full 17-game season and it equals 313 points, a total that would have ranked fifth among quarterbacks. He posted a 20+ yard completion on 11.8 percent of his throws last year, a pace that was second to Tua Tagovailoa among passers with 150+ attempts. Purdy rushed for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns in college, so he’s capable of more rushing production than he had last season (13 yards, one touchdown). The 49ers return 10 starters from arguably the most talented offensive platoon in the league, a factor that can give Purdy more upside value than other similarly valued quarterbacks.

Downside case:It’s tough to rely too heavily on a quarterback coming off an elbow injury. It’s doubly tough to trust a quarterback who has a mere five starts to his credit and is only in his second NFL season. Kyle Shanahan could put in some package plays for Trey Lance and backup Sam Darnold could end up under center if Purdy struggles.

Overall case:Purdy probably isn’t a one-year wonder, but it is realistic to expect a decline from last season’s torrent pace, so slot him as a low-end QB2.

Draft strategy: He may require a pick in Rounds 14-15, but Purdy may also go undrafted in many draft rooms.

• Overall rank: 24
• Upside rank: 24
• Downside rank: 23

Upside case: Alabama has a storied history at quarterback, which makes Young’s achievements there all the more impressive. He is the only Crimson Tide passer to throw for 3,000+ yards in two seasons. He placed second in program history in career passing yards and touchdowns and is the only Alabama quarterback to post five games with 5+ passing touchdowns. He isn’t a rushing specialist, but Young did post 185 rushing yards and four ground touchdowns last year. Carolina ranked sixth in pass pressure rate allowed last year and returns all five offensive line starters. The skill position talent level on this club is above average.

Downside case: The Panthers signed Andy Dalton this offseason, so they may end up sitting Young if he struggles during the campaign. Young had zero rushing yards as Alabama’s starting quarterback in 2021, so there may be a low ceiling to his ground prowess. Frank Reich’s offenses ranked 20th or lower in pass attempts three times in his four full years with the Colts and this season could mimic that low aerial volume. The matchup points total leans towards few high scoring games for the Panthers.

Overall case: Young quarterbacks (pun intended) typically don’t make fantasy scoring impacts unless they rack up a lot of rushing yards. Since that isn’t Young’s specialty and Carolina isn’t on track to throw a lot, Young rates as a low-end QB2.

Draft strategy: He’s a 13th or 14th round lottery pick in redraft leagues.

• Overall rank: 25
• Upside rank: 25
• Downside rank: 30

Upside case: Murray played in only 10 full games last year and yet still finished eighth in rushing fantasy points and was sixth in rush PPG. Short passes are another strength, as Murray was sixth in PPG at that depth level last year. New OC Drew Petzing has a pass game background and Marquise Brown has been superb on short passes for two straight years, so Arizona could go more aerial heavy than expected. Murray looks to be on the early end of the date range to return from his Week 14 ACL injury and thus may be able to start the 2023 campaign on time. The first-round addition of OT Paris Johnson Jr. upgrades the Cardinals pass blocking.

Downside case: The date range for Murray’s return has been listed at anywhere from 6-12 months, so he may not get back in the lineup until well into this season. He’s missed nine games over the past two seasons, so there is a notable durability question mark. Injury rust could be an issue, as could an adjustment to a new OC and HC. Murray’s reported lack of study habits are part of why Arizona may not see him as its long-term quarterback. Murray has fared poorly on short passes in previous years, and he was easily dead last in vertical and stretch vertical PPG in 2023. Add those factors to the loss of DeAndre Hopkins and the Cardinals may not want to rely too heavily on passing. The matchup points total is a hindrance.

Overall case: Murray was on track for his third 300+ point season last year before the injury, so he still has the skills to rate as a QB1, but the multitude of negatives here make him a mid-range QB2. That grade could go up or down depending on his ACL recovery status. UPDATE: It’s looking like Murray won’t get into the lineup until the season is well underway, so he’s now an upper-tier QB3.

Draft strategy: Do not draft

(Cheryl Evans-USA TODAY Sports)