As the fantasy football postseason looms just beyond the coming weekend, we imagine what could be — Jalen Hurts behind center in Philly? — in addition to addressing events that have already taken place, like Will Fuller’s season-ending suspension. Mycolleagues Nando Di Fino, Jake Ciely, Michael Beller, Derek VanRiper (DVR) and Ed Malyon (he of “Brit’s Picks”onThe Athletic’s Fantasy Cheat Sheet — live every Sunday 11 a.m. ET on YouTube, Twitter and Facebook) also weigh in on the recipe for fantasy football success, potential league-winning backup running backs and much more.
Alright, buckle up and let’s get to it!
Q.If Jalen Hurts were handed the keys to the Philly offense for the fantasy playoffs, Hurts’ fantasy value would most closely align with what current starting quarterback?
Funston: Cam Newton — I’d expect the net result to be a back-end Top 20 fantasy QB, just like Cam, and in a similar run-centric manner.
Di Fino: Backend QB2— I’d put him ahead of Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Philip Rivers — in that area. He’d be a spark, I’m sure, and he has a pretty healthy skill position lineup around him. The upside is a couple of those 31.5 point, league-winner games. The downside is 6.5 and replaced at the half.
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Ciely: Cam Newton/Taysom Hill — Hurts has big rushing upside, but he needs passing development still, particularly read progression. That (plus the Carson Wentz contract) is why we haven’t seen him start or even play much.
Beller: Daniel Jones — Pre-injury Daniel Jones.
DVR: Carson Wentz — Is it weird that I think he’d be very similar to Wentz, in terms of fantasy output? Part of what has propped up Wentz’s value thus far is rushing TDs (five in 11 games!), and while expecting those to come at that rate from any quarterback is foolish, Hurts can match (and probably exceed) Wentz’s yardage, and he might make up some ground in the passing game by simply turning the ball over less. Factor in a healthy Zach Ertz, and I think we’re talking about a Top 15 fantasy QB the rest of the way with a few potential shootouts on tap in Week 15 (Arizona) and Week 16 (Dallas).
Malyon: Daniel Jones
Q.David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor and Ronald Jones have playoff schedules ranked among the six easiest for running backs. How would you rank them for the month ahead?
Funston: Jones, Taylor, Montgomery — I think Jones and Taylor are the two most talented of the trio, but I have more confidence in Jones’ ability to maintain a consistent featured workload than Taylor. Jones is averaging 13 touches in the Bucs’ five losses, and nearly 18 touches in the team’s seven wins. And Tampa Bay should be a heavy favorite in all their remaining games.
Di Fino: Montgomery, Jones, Taylor — Montgomery’s among the league leaders in broken tackles and yards after contact. That big run in Week 12 is possible every time he touches the ball and I bet Mitchell Trubisky improves his stock because opposing teams have to respect the run.
Ciely: Montgomery, Taylor, Jones — This is not because of my opinion of talent. If that were the case, I’d go Taylor first and Montgomery last. But volume can overcome, and of these three, Monty is the only one with guaranteed heavy volume.
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Beller: Taylor, Jones, Montgomery — Maybe I’m Charlie Brown to Frank Reich’s Lucy, but give me Taylor first.
DVR: Jones, Montgomery, Taylor — I feel gross, but Jones first, Montgomery second, and Taylor third. Taylor’s situation is the most complicated with the competition for touches, and Montgomery gets volume because of the lack of alternatives, but the situation is bad.
Malyon: Montgomery, Jones, Taylor
CONSENSUS: Montgomery, Jones, Taylor
Q. Rank these receivers in terms of dynasty value: Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Davante Adams?
Funston: Metcalf, Hill, Adams — This ranking reflects a combination of the age of the receivers and the age of their quarterbacks, which really only dings Adams as Aaron Rodgers’ long-term future in Green Bay is cloudy (as ridiculous as that might be).
Di Fino: Hill, Metcalf, Adams — Adams doesn’t deserve this, but it’s how it shakes out for me.
Ciely: Metcalf, Adams, Hill — This is like ranking Huey, Dewey and Louie.
Beller: Metcalf, Hill, Adams — DK has to be first because of the age difference. There’s no wrong answer between Hill and Adams, but I’ll go with Hill second solely because he has more quarterback certainty. If I knew for sure that Adams would play with Aaron Rodgers for another three seasons, I’d put Adams ahead of Hill.
DVR: Metcalf, Adams, Hill — Metcalf is first in the group for me because he’s four years younger than Hill and five years younger than Adams, but I think I’d have to go Adams over Hill in the second spot despite Hill’s ceiling being on full display in recent weeks. The Chiefs are much more likely to put other talented players around him to draw targets away, which will continue to make Hill the most volatile of this bunch (even though he’s still elite). The Packers’ front office is always playing for three years from now, and Adams’ targets will be more steady in the long run as a result.
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Malyon: Metcalf, Hill, Adams
CONSENSUS: Metcalf, Hill, Adams
Q. Fill in the blanks: The recipe for fantasy football success is __% draft, __% in-season management and __% Lady Luck.
Funston: 35/45/20 — A decent amount of luck is attached to every fantasy camapign, but I believe, like Russell Wilson likes to preach, that the “seperation is in the preperation.”
Di Fino: 40/40/20 — I’ll get more specific and say that FAAB management is most of the “in-season management” factor for me. You need luck with injuries, your opponent every week, even your draft order — maybe I’m a little too low at 20%…
Ciely: 33.3/33.3/33.3 — The problem is that some are too lax with the first two, pushing luck higher than it should be. Starting your draft Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler and Odell Beckham (or Kenny Golladay) wasn’t wrong. Just insanely unfortunate luck.
Beller: 40/30/30
DVR: 60/30/10 — If you draft and manage your team well in-season, you reduce the weight of luck in the outcome.
Malyon: 33.3/33.3/33.3
Q. Who is the backup RB most likely to be a league-winning play in the final month of the season if an injury were to occur to the RB ahead of him?
Funston: Jamaal Williams — Green Bay has a great remaining schedule for running backs and, with the team averaging nearly 31 RB touches per game, it’s easy to imagine Williams in a 20+ touch per game featured role if something were to happen to Aaron Jones.
Di Fino:D’Onta Foreman — He’s basically another Derrick Henry, he’s better than you may remember (injuries and Bill O’Brien conspired to ruin his last two years), they love him in Tennessee, and it just seems like a nice feel-good story for the end of the season.
Ciely: Jamaal Williams — Good schedule and we saw what Williams can do on his own. Honestly, I know plenty of Aaron Jones managers who would prefer if Williams wasn’t healthy.
Beller: Latavius Murray
DVR: Jamaal Williams — AJ Dillon has missed a lot of time on the COVID list, and Williams would get 20 touches per week if anything were to happen to Aaron Jones. Lions-Panthers-Titans is the schedule from Week 14-16.
Malyon: Cam Akers
Q. Which QB would you be most comfortable streaming in an ideal fantasy playoff matchup — Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Baker Mayfield or Kirk Cousins?
Funston: Ryan Fitzpatrick — We’ve seen Fitz-magic throw for 300+ yards with 2-3 passing TDs plenty of times in this season and last. And we’ve also seen him average right at 20 rushing yards with a total of six rushing scores in his past 19 games. In an ideal matchup, I like his upside most.
Di Fino: Ryan Fitzpatrick — Fitzpatrick is a nice weird combination of comfort and upside. I’d love Trubisky if Foles didn’t lurk as a possible halftime replacement.
Ciely: Kirk Cousins — It’s only Cousins or Fitz, and when they go bad, they go really bad, but I’ll take the one with two Top 20 receivers.
Beller: Kirk Cousins — And it isn’t close.
DVR: Kirk Cousins — I’ll give the edge to Cousins. Justin Jefferson is legit, so there are now three excellent weapons around him in that offense. I’m not sure any of the other options here have more than two…and if Mayfield has three, two are running backs.
Malyon: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Q. With Will Fuller out, where will Brandin Cooks rank among WRs in fantasy scoring over the next month: A) Top 12 B) 13-20 C) 21-30 D) 31 or higher
Funston: C — I think he’ll finish in the upper end of this 21-30 range, but I think his biggest problem is that he’s the only threat I’d worry about in the passing game if I was an opposing defense. And I feel that Cooks might be ill-suited to drawing extra attention in a true go-to role.
Di Fino: B — Deshaun Watson is going to throw a lot, and while Cooks is wily enough to shake double teams, he’s going to see a ton of attention from defenses.
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Ciely: B — Slight uptick but he’s been flirting with that range since his zero already. Watson will get David Johnson back and spread the remains to the tight ends, Keke Coutee and my boy Isaiah Coulter. The defensive attention will offset a bit of the added targets.
Beller: A — Given Cooks’ track record and his quarterback, I’m comfortable getting aggressive here. Give me Top 12.
DVR: B — I think they’ll get Jordan Akins more involved, and probably send a few extra targets to Keke Coutee and Isaiah Coulter.
Malyon: C
Pick’Ems
Deebo Samuel or Tyler Lockett?
- Samuel (5 votes); Lockett (1 vote)
Ciely says: “Samuel – give me the consistency and SF has a terrific Week 15-16 schedule.”
Beller says: “You know Lockett is going to go off in at least one playoff game, but I’ll take Samuel’s consistency.”
Tim Patrick or Nelson Agholor?
- Patrick (3 votes); Agholor (3 votes)
Beller says: “Patrick. He’s been a quietly reliable WR3/4 type with a healthy Drew Lock.”
Wayne Gallman or Damien Harris?
- Gallman (4 votes); Harris (2 votes)
Di Fino says: “Gallman could be that RB on a lot of championship rosters this year.”
Darrell Henderson or Cam Akers?
- Henderson (0 votes); Akers (5 votes)
(Note: Ciely with a no-vote “pass” on this one)
Di Fino says: “Akers. I hate what they’re doing to Henderson. He would be on the cusp of a 1000-yard season in a normal offense.”
Hayden Hurst or Robert Tonyan?
- Hurst (3 votes); Tonyan (3 votes)
Beller says: “Tonyan. Rodgers >>>>>> Ryan”
Is Die Hard a Christmas movie — Yes or No?
- Yes (5 votes); No (1 vote)
Di Fino says: “Yes, but I prefer Gremlins.”
Ciely says: “No chance in hell. If it is, then so is P2 (look it up)”
Is eggnog good — Yes or no?
- Yes (5 votes); No (1 vote)
Beller says: “I mean, it’s not my preferred vehicle for bourbon, but so long as there’s bourbon in there the answer is yes.”
Q. What is your favorite TV show Christmas episode?
Funston: I’ll with The Office (US) “Christmas Party” because it’s one of my favorites that I’ve watched most recently. But I plan to go back through some of my favorite shows of my past and re-watch their Christmas episodes because I know there’s some great ones that I’m probably failing to recall. And it’ll be a nice break from cramming on the usual holiday movie fare.
Di Fino: I never thought of Lost’s “The Constant” as a Christmas episode (Den of Geek says it is!). That’s my favorite episode of anything ever. But it feels like a stretch. So I’m going with the Cheers Christmas episode where Sam scrambles to get Rebecca a gift. It has a little bit of everything for everyone. I could have just as easily chosen…
- “Married With Children,” It’s a Bundyful Life
- “Twilight Zone,” Night of the Meek
- “South Park,” Mr. Hankey
- “30 Rock,” Christmas Danger Zone
Ciely:Can’t pick just one because I could be in the mood for any. So my five favorites in no particular order:
- Friends “Holiday Armadillo”
- Community “Abed’s Uncontrollable Christmas”
- Futurama “XMas Story”
- Supernatural “A Very Supernatural Christmas”
- DuckTales “How Santa Stole Christmas,” (just aired, and I’m still livid they canceled the show!)
- Honorable mention: Seinfeld “Festivus.”
Beller: Curb Your Enthusiasm “Mary, Joseph and Larry”Who can create multiple self-imposed headaches in the same day over a nativity scene? Only Larry David.
DVR:Brooklyn 99 “Yippie Kayak”
Malyon: The Office (UK) “Christmas Special, Part 2”
(Top photo: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
