MLB trends: Cubs' disastrous defense, the return of the knuckleball and Angels' home woes (2024)

We are two months into the 2024 MLB season and the sample sizes aren't that small anymore. Those early season hot streaks are becoming legitimate breakouts and the season-opening cold streaks are becoming worrisome signs of decline. With that in mind, here are three MLB trends to watch now that the calendar has flipped to June.

Chicago's surprisingly bad infield defense

Over the last five weeks and change, the Cubs are 13-22, primarily because they are scoring only 3.54 runs per game. Eighteen times in those 35 games they scored three runs or fewer. Incredibly, the Cubs still sit in the third wild-card spot despite this recent offensive malaise. The NL's widespread mediocrity is keeping a lot of teams in the race these first two months.

Chicago's offense have such an extended poor stretch is surprising. Even more surprising is the team's infield defense. A year ago, the Cubs were one of the best defensive teams in the game, especially on the dirt, where Gold Glovers Dansby Swanson and Nico ho*rner patrolled the middle infield. This year though, the infield defense has been a liability.

Here are the numbers on Chicago's infield defense entering Tuesday's action:

From one of the very best to one of the very worse. The league-average BABIP -- batting average on balls in play -- on ground balls is .242 this season. It was .243 last year, up from the mid-.230s most of the previous decade. You can thank MLB's shift restrictions for that. The Cubs went from 27 points better than average last year to 20 points worse than average this year. Yikes!

That 47-point swing equals one additional hit every 21 ground balls or so. Cubs pitchers have a middle of the pack ground ball rate (42.7%) and they average 19 ground balls per game. So we're talking close to one additional hit allowed per game, just on ground balls. Going from a .217 BABIP on grounders last year to .262 this year may not seem like much, but that's an enormous difference.

So what happened? For starters, the Cubs installed Christopher Morel at third, and he's one of the worst defensive third basem*n in the game according to both the numbers and the eye test. He's dead last among third basem*n in defensive runs saved (minus-7) and outs above average (minus-7). Part timer Nick Madrigal went from great at third last year to average-ish this year as well before being demoted earlier this week.

Michael Busch, who has started the majority of Chicago's games at first base, is not a particularly adept defender either, especially when it comes to scooping throws at the bag. The Cubs have already made 10 throwing errors between second base, shortstop, and third base. Surely a better defensive first baseman could have saved a few errors with scoops Busch couldn't make.

Also, ho*rner and Swanson haven't been themselves. Swanson missed time with a knee injury last month and perhaps that limited his mobility. Either way, he went from arguably the best defensive shortstop in the game in previous years to just average this year. Same with ho*rner. He was arguably the league's best defensive second baseman in the past. Now he's just so-so.

Defensively slumps happen, and with players as gifted as ho*rner and Swanson, I'm inclined to believe they'll get their act together in the field before long. That said, the season is more than one-third complete, and their glovework has taken a step back. Bad defense hurts in so many ways too. It means more baserunners, more pitches for the guy on the mound, the bullpen, etc.

When you're struggling to score runs like the Cubs have these last few weeks, you have to do everything else better to compensate, and the infield defense has not been subpar. Some decline from last year was expected, especially with Morel taking over at the hot corner. The rest of the unit beside him has been a disappointment. Last year's strength is suddenly a weakness.

Waldron's possibly underused knuckleball

For the first time since R.A. Dickey's final season in 2017, baseball has a knuckleballer as a full-time member of a rotation. Padres righty Matt Waldron has thrown 575 knuckleballs since making his MLB debut last June. From 2018-22, non-position player pitchers threw only 965 knuckleballs, and 833 of those were thrown by former Red Sox swingman Steven Wright from 2018-19.

Waldron, 27, allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings in a tough luck loss to the Angels on Monday. In his previous start, he fired seven shutout innings against an admittedly weak Marlins lineup. Waldron threw 55% knuckleballs against the Marlins. His previous high in an MLB game was 44% knuckleballs. He typically throws it about 35% of the time, mixing it in with fastballs and sliders.

Waldron is on a nice heater right now, pitching to a 1.84 ERA and averaging 5.9 innings in his last five starts. That has coincided with an uptick -- a slight uptick, but still an uptick -- in his knuckleball usage. He's thrown 41% knuckleballs in those five starts. In his previous 15 big league games, Waldron threw only 31% knuckleballs. It's one additional knuckleball every two at-bats or so.

Is it possible Waldron's knuckleball is underutilized? Even Dickey and Tim Wakefield mixed in a fastball now and then, though MLB hitters have hit .261 with a .450 slugging percentage against Waldron's fastballs -- he throws both a four-seamer and a sinker -- and his slider has a poor 17.6% whiff rate. The MLB average is 32.6% whiffs on sliders. Waldron's barely half that.

The fastballs get hit pretty hard and the slider doesn't generate swings and misses. Waldron's knuckleball, meanwhile, has held opponents to a .219 batting average with a .352 slugging percentage, they've whiffed with 28.2% of their swings, and the average exit velocity on balls in play is a mere 84.1 mph. The knuckleball is simply Waldron's most effective pitch.

Knowing that, I can't help but think Waldron should throw his knuckleball more. Maybe don't go full Dickey/Wakefield and throw it 90% of the time, but is 60% doable? 70%? Pairing an upper-70s knuckleball with a low-90s fastball seems like a great idea -- how could a hitter possibly gear up for both? -- though the hitters are telling us Waldron's fastball isn't fooling them. The knuckleball is.

As it stands, Waldron is having a strong season. He's sporting a 3.98 ERA through 12 starts and the various estimators say he's been even more effective than that: 3.29 FIP and 3.36 xERA. Why fix what isn't broken? I don't see it that way though. Throwing more knuckleballs could get Waldron to another level. As good as he's been, there is perhaps a way to be even better.

The Angels' historic home woes

Tuesday night the Angels did something they hadn't done all season: they clinched a series win at home. The Halos have won the first two games of their series with the Padres and will try for the sweep (!) on Wednesday night. They are 1-9 in their 10 home series this year.

At 9-21 (.300), the Angels have not only the worst home record in baseball this season -- the White Sox are next worst with a 10-21 (.323) record at home -- they're on pace to have one of the worst home records ever. Here are the worst home winning percentages since MLB fully adopted the 162-game schedule in 1962:

It's never good when you're in the company of the 1962 Mets or the 2003 Tigers, or the expansion Expos for that matter. I'm a bit surprised one of those recent hard-tanking Orioles teams didn't show up here, though they came close. The 2019 O's are seventh on that list with a 25-56 (.309) home record.

Of course, it is only June 5, and the Angels still have 51 home games to play. But, even if they go 26-25 in those final 51 home games, they would still finish with a 35-46 home record, or a .432 winning percentage. It would be the fourth worst home winning percentage in franchise history behind 1994 (.365), 1980 (.370), and 1968 (.395). Awful anyway you slice it.

The thing is, the Angels have been a competent team on the road. They're 14-17 with a minus-8 run differential away from the Big A. That's not good, don't get me wrong, but it's not a disaster either. At home, the Angels have been outscored by 44 runs, or 1.47 per game. Even the extremely bad 2023 Athletics managed to win 32% of their home games. The Angels aren't even doing that.

In the grand scheme of things, performing so poorly at home is only a tiny part of the Angels' problems. The big league roster is loaded with journeymen and hangers-on, the farm system is barren, and ownership is meddlesome (to say the least). Maybe the league-worst home record will be a wakeup call. I suspect it won't be though. Still, tough for Angels fans to have to sit through this.