Drafting quarterbacks for our fantasy teams didn’t used to be this way. It wasn’t that long ago that when anyone selected a quarterback in the second round — let alone the first — that person was teased almost as much as someone who drafted a kicker in the middle rounds. The going wisdom was that the quarterbacks were mostly interchangeable; just make sure you get someone in the top 12, after you fill out your roster with position players, and you’re good.
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As the NFL has changed over the last decade, so has the importance of quarterbacks for fantasy players. Gone are the days when there were only one or two true rushing threats at the position like during most of Michael Vick’s career. Or, if your fantasy days span back even further, back when Randall Cunningham and Steve Young juked linebackers and safeties in the open field.
Five quarterbacks finished among the top 50 in rushing last season — six if you count Taysom Hill — and six quarterbacks finished in the top 25 in rushing touchdowns. So while you may be looking at this story and thinking it’s far too early to be ranking fantasy quarterbacks, at the very least this will be a good reminder to recalibrate how we feel about the position when we draft our fantasy teams.
That brings us to the difficult part of the discussion, ranking these guys when we either don’t know where they will play in 2021, or can’t be too sure how they’ll adjust to their new surroundings if they’ve already changed teams. That’s why I enlisted the help of some of our experts here at The Athletic, which hopefully will give you some food for thought as you think about roster construction next season.
I stopped at 19, since it’s February, there’s a lot of movement left, and the players after the Top 19 are basically lumped together at a major tier dropoff.
Nos. 1 and 1a: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen
Notes: What I’m about to say is borderline sacrilegious in the fantasy community, but you can flip a coin between these two. I get it — Mahomes is so incredibly talented and consistent that even his off games can propel your fantasy team to victories most weeks. But Allen was the top fantasy scorer last season (partly because Mahomes played one fewer game; their averages per game were virtually the same) and Mahomes is coming off of fairly serious foot surgery. He should be fine for training camp, but after the way last season ended, Andy Reid could look toward a more balanced attack to lower Mahomes’ chances of acquiring nagging injuries. Allen’s production as a rusher (421 yards and 8 TD last season), meanwhile, shouldn’t diminish in 2021.
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3. Kyler Murray
Notes: I still believe, even though his regression was pretty severe in the second half of last season.
Nos. 4 through 8 (any order): Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson
Notes: You can throw all of these names into a hat, pick one and be happy. But there’s just a smidgeon of lingering doubt with each of these guys that keeps them just under that Mahomes/Allen/Murray tier. Prescott averaged 422.5 passing yards per game before suffering that brutal ankle injury against the Giants in Week 5, but he had to have a second surgery on that ankle in December that we only found out about two weeks ago. Watson can put up great numbers for teams both good and bad, but if the Texans refuse to trade him, could he hold out for multiple weeks this season? Jackson has the extraordinarily high floor that comes from being a 1,000-yard rusher, but he failed to throw for 200 yards in six of his first 10 games in 2020. Rodgers was brilliant throughout his MVP campaign, but there were legitimate reasons why his ADP was lower than Drew Brees and Matt Ryan before last season. Wilson was an MVP favorite until he suffered a similar regression last season as Murray, and doesn’t seem all that happy in Seattle for the first time.
9. Justin Herbert
Notes: I feel the same way about Herbert going into 2021 as I did about Josh Allen before last season. If he’s available in the seventh round, I’m pouncing. Maybe even one round earlier, actually. In fact, I could probably be convinced to toss Herbert into that tier with the five quarterbacks mentioned above, but most drafters will probably feel safer going with a quarterback who’s shown elite qualities for multiple seasons.
10. Matthew Stafford
Notes: Our Jake Ciely ranked Stafford as the No. 15 quarterback in his early look at the top 200, which makes sense! Last season he ranked … 15th. It seems like he’ll forever be the guy who doesn’t kill your team while never quite lifting it to a championship either. But even in a league with several mobile quarterbacks and a couple of otherworldly throwers in Mahomes and Rodgers (Herbert could launch himself into that latter category as well), Stafford’s upside shouldn’t be ignored. I’ll let Jourdan Rodrigue, our Rams beat writer, explain:
Sean McVay pursued Matthew Stafford heavily (and vice-versa) in the days and hours leading up to the trade agreement, in part because of what McVay believes Stafford will unlock in his offense. We actually saw a small blueprint of this in Week 17, with undrafted free agent John Wolford at starting quarterback. Wolford worked well out-of-structure, which in turn helped some of McVay’s longer-developing plays become more readily available than they had throughout the 2020 season under Jared Goff. When “gimme yards” were available in front of him, Wolford ran to pick them up and in turn help build layers of accountability for the defense in the intermediate and shorter parts of the field.
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Now, McVay won’t be designing runs for Stafford — but will expect him to work well out-of-structure and freestyle at the end of plays. Pairing him with Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Van Jefferson opens up the short and intermediate levels of the field and it’s expected that the Rams add some vertical speed as well to give Stafford additional options in that phase. Stafford finds throwing lanes really well, even when operating out-of-structure, and with technically-sound receivers in Woods, Kupp and Jefferson who also add great yards-after-catch ability, McVay is expecting his offense to return to higher production in 2021.
Nos. 11 and 12 (coin flip): Tom Brady and Ryan Tannehill
Notes: There’s some comforting stability here with both players, along with a little bit of sneaky upside. Brady could take a step forward in his second season working with Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, and if the Buccaneers decide to franchise Chris Godwin he’ll still have one of the league’s best set of wideouts. Tannehill has been better than steady since joining the Titans and I’m expecting an enormous season for A.J. Brown in 2021, simply considering Brown was as productive as he was while dealing with pretty severe knee pain from Week 2 on that kept him from practicing.
13. Carson Wentz
Notes: Many gave up on Wentz last season, and who can blame them? The guy was a turnover machine and looked totally lost, to the point where he lost his job to Jalen Hurts and subsequently made it known that he wanted out of Philadelphia. But his eventual landing spot couldn’t have been better. Colts coach Frank Reich was Wentz’s offensive coordinator in 2017, when Wentz was QB5 despite missing three games. Our Colts beat writer, Stephen Holder, struck a similarly optimistic tone.
Predicting a quarterback’s performance after a season in which he suffered a complete breakdown is tough to do. The Carson Wentz of 2020 looked nothing like the Carson Wentz of previous seasons, and that makes projections tough because, well, who is he?
But here’s something we can lean on: Colts quarterbacks under Frank Reich have seen a noticeable uptick in their efficiency. That goes for Andrew Luck (2018), Jacoby Brissett (2019) and Philip Rivers (2020). Luck, for example, enjoyed the highest completion percentage of his career under Reich (67.3). And Rivers went from 20 interceptions in 2019 to 11 last season in the Indianapolis offense.
If Reich can do the same for Wentz, there is a real possibility we could see a significant increase in his completion percentage (career-low 57.4 last season) and a reduction in his interceptions (career-high 15 in just 12 games). Wentz averaged 27 touchdown passes in the three seasons before last year’s catastrophe. It seems reasonable to expect that his 2021 production — with a superb offensive line, a bright offensive coach and a defense capable of putting him in good spots — will be closer to that than his outlier 2020 season.
Boom or bust guys: Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence
Notes: Burrow’s rookie season featured a few nice games and a couple of stinkers before he suffered a season-ending knee surgery that shouldn’t keep him out of action next season … provided he doesn’t suffer any setbacks, which isn’t a given. He seems like a guy who could make a significant leap in his second year, but will the Bengals invest in protecting him and providing him with some better downfield weapons? That remains to be seen. We are talking about the Bengals, after all.
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As for Lawrence, he’s the only rookie quarterback who we can be almost completely certain will start Week 1 next season. He’s got the kind of talent that suggests he could be next season’s Herbert, but Herbert also had the luxury of throwing to Keenan Allen. Then again, D.J. Chark was a 1,000-yard receiver in 2019, Laviska Shenault showed progress in his rookie season, and the Jaguars have the most cap space in the league. If they could entice Allen Robinson to return to Jacksonville, suddenly Lawrence has as many options as almost anyone.
As for the other rookies, it’s a crapshoot because all of this is so situationally-based. Here’s how our draft guru, Dane Brugler, responded when I asked him about which rookie quarterbacks would have the largest fantasy impact:
It’s tough because obviously everything depends on landing spot. Lawrence is the easy answer, partly because we know where he is headed. He is expected to be the starter in Jacksonville from the get-go and has the skills to make an immediate impact. Obviously, the quarterback that lands with the Jets will have a tougher road due to the makeup of that roster.
What if Zach Wilson lands in San Francisco? That could be a situation with an immediate impact. Or Mac Jones in New Orleans. Some interesting fits, but just tough right now because it depends on where these guys end up.
Safe picks for depth purposes: Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan
Notes: It’s probably better to end up with one of these guys instead of someone like Daniel Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff or even Ben Roethlisberger, but none of them are necessarily all that exciting for fantasy purposes either. The Saints’ situation is also one to follow, whether they go with Jameis Winston, Hill, or a rookie (as Brugler mentioned earlier).
In conclusion, we’ll get a lot more intel on who to target in fantasy once we see how everything shakes out with free agency and the draft. But it’s already been a wild offseason for quarterbacks. All of the moves that have already happened and are yet to come, along with the strength of the quarterbacks at the top of the heap, make it worthwhile for fantasy players to pay closer attention to the position than they ever imagined they would just five years ago.
(Photo: Jim Berry / Kansas City Chiefs)
Steve Berman is a staff editor and writer for The Athletic. He edits MLB content and focuses his writing on Bay Area sports, with an emphasis on local media. Before joining The Athletic he founded Bay Area Sports Guy, which became the top independent site in the region, and covered local sports for Bay Area News Group and NBC Sports Bay Area. Follow Steve on Twitter @BASportsGuy
